The latest estimate from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) indicates that sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production is set to triple this year, reaching close to 500 million gallons. While this is a significant increase, it still represents only 0.5% of the aviation industry’s total fuel needs. In order for the airline industry to achieve its ambitious target of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050, SAF production would need to increase by a staggering 1,000-fold. IATA’s chief economist and senior vice president of sustainability, Marie Owens Thomsen, emphasized the need for a rapid scale-up in production during the trade group’s annual general meeting in Dubai.
Despite the monumental task ahead, Thomsen remains optimistic about the industry’s ability to meet this target. Drawing parallels to the rapid expansion of wind and solar energy in recent decades, she highlighted that achieving such ambitious goals is not impossible. However, substantial investment of approximately $150 billion annually will be required to drive the transformation. The aviation sector has a proven track record of overcoming challenges, and Thomsen believes that this will be another hurdle that can be cleared with concerted effort.
According to IATA’s projections, SAF is expected to play a crucial role in helping the aviation industry achieve its carbon reduction targets. SAF, which must offer emissions reductions of at least 50% compared to traditional jet fuel, is estimated to contribute to 65% of the industry’s overall carbon reductions needed to reach net zero. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has set a target of reducing aviation emissions by 5% globally by 2030, further underscoring the importance of accelerating SAF production.
IATA has called on governments to implement policies that incentivize SAF production, including measures aimed at shifting renewable-fuel production towards aviation. By creating a supportive regulatory environment and providing financial incentives, governments can help boost SAF production to meet the industry’s sustainability objectives. This is particularly crucial as the transportation sector transitions towards cleaner alternatives, such as electric vehicles. Hemant Mistry, IATA’s energy transition director, emphasized the need for proactive government intervention to drive the shift towards sustainable aviation fuels.
The aviation industry faces significant challenges in scaling up SAF production to meet its ambitious emissions targets. However, with the right investments, policies, and collective efforts, the sector can drive substantial progress towards achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. Collaboration between industry stakeholders, governments, and regulatory bodies will be key to accelerating the adoption of sustainable aviation fuels and ensuring a more sustainable future for air travel.